Sunday, April 19, 2020

Covid Journal 4 - Ben Carson Has a Problem with Math!

The lack of leadership and action from the top, and the conflicting or erroneous (being nice with that adjective) information coming from the White House, is staggering. We've all see the timelines and flip-flip statements about the President's actions or inactions, but here's one that hasn't gotten the attention is should.

Ben Carson said that 98% of people recover from Covid 19 and we can't operate out of hysteria.  I agree that we can't operate out of hysteria, but it patently obvious the he and the president are working out of ignorance.

He is absolutely right. We can't operate from a position of hysteria. However, the rest of his statement is wrong on so many levels.

I can't help but wonder where he got his figure. The last time I hear mention of 2% was when news of the Italian health system collapsing. I don't think he have a handle on the survival rate, because we have no idea how many cases there actually are. If we examine the statement a number of different ways, his math just doesn't add up.

First, let's apply truth in advertising to the statement. If 98% survive, that means 2% don't. Then his statement would say, 2% of the people with Covid 19 will die.  We know the mortality rate of the flu is 0.1%. By Ben's calculations, a 2% mortality rate make Covid 20 times more deadly than the flu, and that is AFTER social distancing.

Right now there are 73,988 cases of Covid 19 and 38,928 deaths. That's not 2%. That's 5%!!!

I'm sure Ben knows there are more cases not identified, including deaths and asymtomatic diagnosed, because we have inadequate testing and reporting. That should come as no surprise to anyone but our president.

Assuming Ben's mortality rate is correct, and 2% die. That would mean there have to be just about 2 million active cases RIGHT NOW.

The chances are that he is wrong, and that the actual death rate will be less than 2%.
That's good, but only in the sense that the number of unnecessary deaths will be fewer that he is projecting. You know what's bad? Political clowns treating daily pandemic briefings into campaign rallies. 

The American people need, and deserve better!

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